NextGenerationEU and the Future of the European Monetary Union: Shifting Interests and New Fractures in the German Power Bloc

Abstract Based on joint borrowing and a significant transfer component, NextGenerationEU stands in contrast to Germany's longstanding rejection of ‘debt’ ‘transfer union’. This article probes into the determinants this shift European policy approach. Focusing conflicts Germany over ‘deepening’ Monetary Union through fiscal capacity building between 2015 2020, it investigates which actors, interests strategies instigated shift. The analysis is based trade exchange rate data, qualitative document position papers as well expert interviews with interest group representatives, parliamentarians civil servants. Theoretically, study draws concepts from regulation theory, materialist state theory neo‐Gramscianism. It argues that even though not fundamental paradigm shift, push for indicates strategic re‐orientation parts German power bloc towards integration, amplified by recent geopolitical dynamics crisis tendencies.